The Pariah State and the paper tiger empire are running out of air defense capability, losing bases, and radar installations as both of these countries are over extended and lack the ability to replenish necessary equipment especially air defense capability as the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz will cripple the puppet vassal Arab states.
Can I ask when someone from J Street is going to denounce Senator Van Hollen's abhorrent remarks at your conference's opening plenary? What an embarrassment to J Street and its supporters.
More sense and logic in one article than the combined self-congratulatory blathering of the (blinded) egos of Trump, his cabinet, his advisors and (few) foreign allies.
The vast majority of Iranians are standing with their government against the genocide state and the paper tiger empire as the last failed color revolution exposed
Factor 1 & 2 are controlled or affected by US, Israeli, and Iranian actions. But factor 3 is beyond their control. Once they enable these splinter groups, all bets are off. And that suggests that is what Israel will do because it will introduce more chasos than already exists in any war, and chasos is what the Israelis want. But that is not what Trump wants so stopping Israel from encouraging splinter groups should be a major US objective.
What is it that the Elites have criticized for years? CO2/ Population/ Global Warming. Now think, Georgia Guidstones/ Epstein/ verbiage out of their OWN MOUTH? Population reduction needed/ Poisoned skies/ Poisoned food/ Poisoned water/ Vaccines. Now, what does EVERY ELITE TOP 1% have? What has allegedly $20 Trillion in 'Black-ops' Built????? Take a second and think..................... Underground Bunkers! Now ask yourself, does this INSANE WAR, WW3 make ANY sense? POPULATION DESTRUCTION SOON TO BE ACCOMPLISHED BY 'THEM"! KABOOOOM COMING SOON, we all know it! Mission Accomplished.
Your final conclusions are probably wrong but your list of possible outcomes is accurate.
A war of attrition is the regime’s strategy but it seems to be failing. Ballistic Missile launches are declining daily as US and Israeli ( US-I ) forces have degraded mobile launchers, warehouses and manufacturing sites.
Why have you avoided analyzing if these tactics could be applied to drone launches, storage and manufacturing? If the regime lacks missiles and drones how will they exact a price that raises the political price Trump has to pay? There are also medium range missiles but you failed to include this weapons system.
You also ignore the pressure that can be exerted on the families and bank accounts of IRGC elites. The IRGC is not just the regime’s praetorian guard. It is integrated into the regime’s economy. There is a video online of IRGC general Ali Shamkhani’s daughter, Fatemeh, wearing a white, very sexy wedding dress ( in a regime that opposes Western fashion and promotes modesty ). There are many elites in the regime with family in the west and wealth secreted in Western bank accounts. What happens if that money is confiscated or family in the west arrested and threatened with deportation? Will these elites be motivated to seize control from the Islamists to maintain their wealth, power and status? Israel has gamed out this scenario. You ignored it.
Just as the Kurds could be armed so could the Iranian people. Air power, in particular the Warthog could be quite effective against security forces, protected by special forces and fighters. You left out that scenario. It is almost a certainty that the endgame does not result in a democratic regime. The best outcome is a leadership that is not revolutionary Islamists but competent at governing. You ignored the details while spending far too much space on your preferred conclusion, a war of attrition leading to the regime’s survival.
You also ignored that the strategic goal of remaking the ME, which Bush II lost out of incompetence, might be possible should the Mullahs and endless war ideology be defeated. That requires option II or IV. Based on launching data your assertions on the success of the regime’s attrition strategy seems misplaced.
Thanks, Ilan, you know I follow your work closely. In my free public substack, as a long-time J Street supporter, I am focused on four key daily updates, just the sort of thing the war hawks on both sides don't want to discuss (1) Israeli casualties and destruction, (2) "Collateral damage" in Iran and Lebanon; (3) US military deaths, (4) Remaining Iranian and Hezbollah offensive capcity which alas both US and Israeli hawks and doves tend to underestimate. Free subs from your readers welcome with my approval as I've taken this private: https://michaelalandover.substack.com/p/peace-with-justice-in-the-middle
Trump knows better than all the experts.
Sarcasm
How much did you trumpians pay to sell out your country for a red hat made in China?
Well thought out and tightly argued.
The Pariah State and the paper tiger empire are running out of air defense capability, losing bases, and radar installations as both of these countries are over extended and lack the ability to replenish necessary equipment especially air defense capability as the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz will cripple the puppet vassal Arab states.
Can I ask when someone from J Street is going to denounce Senator Van Hollen's abhorrent remarks at your conference's opening plenary? What an embarrassment to J Street and its supporters.
More sense and logic in one article than the combined self-congratulatory blathering of the (blinded) egos of Trump, his cabinet, his advisors and (few) foreign allies.
https://austinsikora.substack.com/p/the-rapture-will-be-redacted?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=32cg97
Best current assessment, Iran
Hudson Institute
https://x.com/i/status/2029684318659125293
Dude wtf are you talking about
let's hear your erudite overview of the war and the prospects for Iran??? Please enlighten us
Man I better shut up I make people become rude
“At this point, the best option is to try to steer events toward a managed transition while avoiding steps that push Iran toward collapse.”
The current regime in Washington does not have the sense to allow that to happen.
The vast majority of Iranians are standing with their government against the genocide state and the paper tiger empire as the last failed color revolution exposed
Ilan - I wish you were in charge. And let's hope state collapse doesn't happen, though I fear that's the goal.
The only thing collapsing is the paper tiger USA empire and hegemony as its bases are being wiped out in the region and never to return.
Ilan
Thanks for setting these options and factors out.
Factor 1 & 2 are controlled or affected by US, Israeli, and Iranian actions. But factor 3 is beyond their control. Once they enable these splinter groups, all bets are off. And that suggests that is what Israel will do because it will introduce more chasos than already exists in any war, and chasos is what the Israelis want. But that is not what Trump wants so stopping Israel from encouraging splinter groups should be a major US objective.
What is it that the Elites have criticized for years? CO2/ Population/ Global Warming. Now think, Georgia Guidstones/ Epstein/ verbiage out of their OWN MOUTH? Population reduction needed/ Poisoned skies/ Poisoned food/ Poisoned water/ Vaccines. Now, what does EVERY ELITE TOP 1% have? What has allegedly $20 Trillion in 'Black-ops' Built????? Take a second and think..................... Underground Bunkers! Now ask yourself, does this INSANE WAR, WW3 make ANY sense? POPULATION DESTRUCTION SOON TO BE ACCOMPLISHED BY 'THEM"! KABOOOOM COMING SOON, we all know it! Mission Accomplished.
Your final conclusions are probably wrong but your list of possible outcomes is accurate.
A war of attrition is the regime’s strategy but it seems to be failing. Ballistic Missile launches are declining daily as US and Israeli ( US-I ) forces have degraded mobile launchers, warehouses and manufacturing sites.
Why have you avoided analyzing if these tactics could be applied to drone launches, storage and manufacturing? If the regime lacks missiles and drones how will they exact a price that raises the political price Trump has to pay? There are also medium range missiles but you failed to include this weapons system.
You also ignore the pressure that can be exerted on the families and bank accounts of IRGC elites. The IRGC is not just the regime’s praetorian guard. It is integrated into the regime’s economy. There is a video online of IRGC general Ali Shamkhani’s daughter, Fatemeh, wearing a white, very sexy wedding dress ( in a regime that opposes Western fashion and promotes modesty ). There are many elites in the regime with family in the west and wealth secreted in Western bank accounts. What happens if that money is confiscated or family in the west arrested and threatened with deportation? Will these elites be motivated to seize control from the Islamists to maintain their wealth, power and status? Israel has gamed out this scenario. You ignored it.
Just as the Kurds could be armed so could the Iranian people. Air power, in particular the Warthog could be quite effective against security forces, protected by special forces and fighters. You left out that scenario. It is almost a certainty that the endgame does not result in a democratic regime. The best outcome is a leadership that is not revolutionary Islamists but competent at governing. You ignored the details while spending far too much space on your preferred conclusion, a war of attrition leading to the regime’s survival.
You also ignored that the strategic goal of remaking the ME, which Bush II lost out of incompetence, might be possible should the Mullahs and endless war ideology be defeated. That requires option II or IV. Based on launching data your assertions on the success of the regime’s attrition strategy seems misplaced.
Good thing you are not running the war department.
Thank you for your well thought out post.
Thanks, Ilan, you know I follow your work closely. In my free public substack, as a long-time J Street supporter, I am focused on four key daily updates, just the sort of thing the war hawks on both sides don't want to discuss (1) Israeli casualties and destruction, (2) "Collateral damage" in Iran and Lebanon; (3) US military deaths, (4) Remaining Iranian and Hezbollah offensive capcity which alas both US and Israeli hawks and doves tend to underestimate. Free subs from your readers welcome with my approval as I've taken this private: https://michaelalandover.substack.com/p/peace-with-justice-in-the-middle