The Most Important Decision for Israel’s Future

Israel’s opposition faces a choice: Bring Arab partners into the political fold or face permanent Netanyahu rule.

[Image via CC by Zaher333]

The next Israeli election – whether it comes in fall 2026 or sooner – will be the most consequential in the country’s history. That’s not hyperbole.

If, after everything Israel has been through, the public reelects Benjamin Netanyahu together with the most extremist coalition Israel has ever seen – Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and their allies – it may well mark the end of the vision of Israel as a Jewish AND Democratic state.

Opportunities for regional integration and normalization are slipping away. Saudi normalization, once within reach, is already becoming more remote, and would be effectively off the table for the foreseeable future if Netanyahu remains in power.

Europe – Israel’s most important economic partner – is increasingly viewing Israel as a pariah state. Another Netanyahu government could bring unprecedented isolation, threatening Israeli participation in cultural staples like Eurovision and European soccer. Maybe eventually economic sanctions.

For many American Jews who have tried to maintain their relationship to the State of Israel by reasoning that this government does not represent Israel’s people, another Netanyahu victory would be devastating. The ability to separate “Israel” from “this government” would collapse.

Most critically, given the accelerating reality on the ground in the West Bank – settlement expansion, new recent legal steps towards full annexation, and unchecked settler violence – another term for this coalition would mean the effective end of any meaningful separation between Israelis and Palestinians and also a dead end for any progress in Gaza that could eventually become the bridge towards a regional peace deal – what we call at J Street the 23 State Solution.

The good news is that Netanyahu is not currently winning.

For nearly two years, his bloc – Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox parties, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir – has hovered around 50 seats out of 120. The public continues to blame Netanyahu for October 7 and wants a real investigation into what happened. Opposition to the judicial overhaul and democratic erosion remains deep.

There is no broad public enthusiasm for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s ideological agenda. Given a choice, most Israelis would prefer regional integration over West Bank annexation.

And yet.

The opposition still cannot clearly cross the 60-seat threshold needed to govern. Depending on the poll, the “Jewish opposition” sits somewhere between the mid-50s and just under 60 – sometimes topping out at 61.

Without partners beyond that bloc, Israel remains stuck in stalemate, and stalemate most likely means Netanyahu stays in power (There are other configurations that may be possible, but most seem unlikely for different reasons and still take you down a dark path where Netanyahu remains Prime Minister).

That is an outcome Israel cannot afford. And it takes us to the core question – the most important political decision for Israel’s future in 2026 and beyond:

Will Jewish opposition parties accept Arab parties as legitimate coalition partners? And will Arab parties be willing to participate in some form in a coalition?

There is no way around it. Without Arab parties in, or at least supporting, a governing coalition, Netanyahu remains prime minister by default.

There is of course the important moral argument. Israel’s declaration of independence called for social and political equality and invited all residents, including Arab citizens of Israel, to be part of building the future state. If Israel is to achieve its founders’ vision of a Jewish democratic state, it cannot continue on this pathway of having 20 percent of its citizens participating but essentially politically excluded. It is time for that to change. And what Israel needs to get to this future is genuine political partnership between its Jewish and Arab citizens.

Just as compelling though, are the pragmatic arguments for going into a coalition together, starting with the reality that the political overlap between the Arab parties and the rest of the opposition is real and substantial.

All opposition parties – Jewish and Arab – agree on defending democracy, opposing corruption, and reversing the judicial coup. All want to end Israel’s slide toward international pariah status after October 7.

Arab citizens of Israel are demanding rule of law, personal security, and serious government investment in their communities – after years of rampant crime and police neglect under Ben Gvir. In recent polling 75% support having an Arab party as part of a future government.

On Gaza, on the West Bank, and on Israel’s regional future, there is more common ground than many admit. Mansour Abbas for example recognizes Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Even parties that do not embrace a full two-state solution are willing to prioritize regional integration and avoiding pariah status in exchange for halting the most destructive policies in the territories.

At a minimum, politicians like Bennett and Lieberman could find ways to cooperate quietly on some things and pull back from the worst excesses of this extremist government. They may continue to support settlements and oppose a two-state solution, but would probably be willing to undo some of the recent steps towards annexation and cooperate with the United States and the international community on the 20-point plan for Gaza instead of continuing to block progress at every step. Even if their public rhetoric towards the Palestinians was still hostile – especially with liberal and centrist parties and the Arab parties to balance them out.

That is enough to govern.

And in practical terms, Arab parties today are no more “outside the Zionist consensus” than the ultra-Orthodox parties that routinely sit in government – strongly opposing any mandatory military service even after the terrible toll that the two-year war in Gaza took on reservists in the IDF, imposing massive economic costs through subsidies, and in many cases being quite ambivalent about the need for a Jewish state of Israel to exist in its current form.

Yet somehow, cooperation with ultra-Orthodox parties is considered normal politics and gives Netanyahu a 15 seat headstart, while cooperation with Arab citizens is treated as taboo despite their many contributions to Israeli society.

But perhaps the most compelling argument of all is the most pragmatic one. Keeping Arab parties out of the coalition is not just political suicide. It is political malpractice.

Imagine if progressives and moderate Democratic members in the U.S. House of Representatives decided they wouldn’t caucus together anymore because the disagreements were too sharp. Maybe just 50 of the most progressive members of the House would essentially stand aside. In that world you could just end up with Mike Johnson as the Speaker of the House in perpetuity.

That would be insane. Which is why while Josh Gottheimer and Rashida Tlaib don’t agree on a lot of things, they find enough things to agree on so that they can vote for the same Speaker of the House.

And yet that is exactly the logic Israel’s opposition is following.

Coalition politics 101 means you build governing majorities with people you don’t fully agree with. Israel’s opposition – Jewish parties and Arab parties alike – must accept this reality. Build the coalition, or hand the country back to extremists by default.

There is no third option.

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Both Mansour Abbas and Yair Golan — two opposition leaders who support Jewish-Arab partnering — will be speaking at J Street Convention at the end of this month.