Good and useful analysis. One note: your first possible outcome is that the Iranian regime survives in a weakened state. You do not mention that besides being weakened, it will also likely be more aggressive and more likely to actually race for a nuclear arsenal.
My take is exactly opposite. The first possible outcome is to essentially destroy their ability to wage war by destroying their military capability AND production capacity. That’s what will happen in the next two weeks. Then we leave and if the regime stays it’s not ideal but not the end of the world. Israel and other neighbors can police their military progress.
What has not been made public but is not discussed here (which tells me you don’t have all the facts) is that Iran’s missile production capacity had just started to exceed the capacity of neighbors to produce anti-missile units. That is almost as dangerous as the nukes. Should the US be doing this? It’s debatable, but not for the reasons stated here.
And btw the reason we don’t attack North Korea is because we screwed up and let them develop nuclear weapons before doing this. This analysis a bit of a cause/effect mess in my opinion.
This is an excellent example of avoiding the heart of the issue, is the IRGC a force that can be contained, or is it fundamentally committed to Islamic revolution above all else. Israelis believe they are, J-street apparently does not.
The author asks that we denounce the black pot of the Iran war while honoring the black kettle of Israel.
Israel's right to exist is solely from might making right. To pretend that one can support liberty and justice for all as all Americans pledge to do in our Pledge of Allegiance and at the same time support ethnic cleansing for anyone anywhere including Jews in Israel is hypocrisy. Now the ultimate is occurring, American blood is being shed for Israel, at last opening American eyes to the manipulation that has reached a climax in this horror.
It is time to escape the grip Zionism has established on the US by means of vast wealth and influence applied to the corrupt American lobby-run political system and end all support for Israel along with the war with Iran it has brought. Not only because the US is the hypocrite of the world but in particular because the safe place for Jews is well established in America where Jews are outstandingly and justifiably accomplished in all areas.
Success for American Zionists has by their effort had the terrible consequence of turning our country upside down to support its antithesis, ethnic supremacy. One Zionist billionaire, one of a number of them, Larry Ellison, is able to leverage his success as a free and full citizen of the US to buy a major American media outlet, CBS, in order to warp its output to support Israel where he fully approves of the native Palestinians having no rights at all in the OT, being evicted for the crime of living in their homeland, let alone the bloodbath of Gaza. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you? Absolutely not if you support Israel.
Big Zionist donors to US universities are able to leverage their success as free and full citizens of the US to suppress freedom of speech on campuses in this country where freedom of speech is protected by our first amendment. If a university president is not a Zionist, he/she will be intimidated with the threat of being called antisemitic, Jonathan Greenblatt ready and willing to do so anywhere and everywhere in America, throwing the accusation daily, touring synagogues to proclaim: be afraid, be very afraid!
As The Jewish State which claims all of world Jewry as its own has slaughtered and razed in Gaza, Americans are instead to pay attention to the claim that Jewish college students are uncomfortable! This use of the red herring is beyond grotesque. In addition, American Jews are not to be asked their position on Israel, the country that claims them as its own. For decades Americans have heard "Israel has a right to defend itself" while the rights of the Palestinians are not mentioned. Eviction and aggression from 1948 is defense and violence in defense of one's homeland by Palestinians is aggression. Israel has turned morality upside down.
Netanyahu, whose family background is Lithuanian and Polish, is able to get the American president to declare war on Iran that has nothing to do with US national security and everything to do with protecting ethnic cleansing Israel, entirely taken from the native Palestinians who are now being openly and eagerly attacked by Israeli settlers in the West Bank as the Israeli government supplies arms to the settlers, Ben-Gvir presiding with a smile.
Meanwhile, big real estate plans are made for Gaza with no input from the Gazans now homeless and being killed a few at a time from day to day by the IDF after two years of the outright slaughter of tens of thousands to the approval of the great majority of Israelis. Miriam Adelson is standing by waiting for Trump to reward her huge campaign contributions with US recognition of Israel's annexation of the West Bank. Open corruption. Mainstream media is silent.
Israel is a terrible blight on Judaism as was foreseen by the great majority of European Jews before the founding of Israel when Zionism was widely denounced. This denunciation is heard today by the courageous members of JVP who are outraged to see Judaism associated with Zionism and to see Jews, such as Jonathan Greenblatt, making no distinction between Zionism and Judaism.
All Americans, Jew and gentile, must break the "special relationship" with Israel that is as shameful in American history as was slavery.
A good analysis on the possible outcomes of the war, and on the different interests of the US and Israel. And, of course, the continuously growing antisemitism in the US, as the war continues contrary to the interests of America and probably American Jews.
There was little antisemitism in my boomer lifetime, and those of my friends (I've been doing an informal poll). But now the actions of the Israeli government are harming the Jews here, while not helping the Israelis, who come when called, and show up as needed, and support the war. They haven't got any more notion of getting rid of Netanyahu than we do of Trump. It's as if Israel needs rescuing from itself, not Iran, and instead gets enabled by the Emperor himself.
Well written and reasoned, Ilan. I cannot think of one policy that is less in the national interest of the United States of America than this one.
It is a wag the dog gambit on steroids and unmitigated disaster in every conceivable way. Trump is a desperate man who knows that politically and maybe legally he’a a dead man walking.
So, from Trump’s perspective, being that he is an evil and amoral man why not do anything and everything possible to deflect attention from his regime’s Epstein pedophile coverup, crappy economy his policies have caused; and his sadistic, unpopular immigration policies in order to remain in power for as long as possible.
He may figure that if he’s gonna down why not take the entire nation and world down with him.
Serious question: if this war is bad and shouldn’t be happening and is a threat to global stability, then what is your alternative to dealing with Iran and their proxies?
What is missing here is an appreciation for the fact that the United States President entered this war for no clear reason (see a new one every day) and no thought to intended and unintended consequences. Period. Analysis of the putative strategy of a wholly incompetent President and Secretary of Defense when in fact they have nothing that can be seriously characterized as a strategy seems a waste of time. It also bodes poorly for Israel.
Very well put Ilan, thank you very much. Sadly within the growing anti-war on Iran movement there is much conflation of Israel and Israelis. You even do that in one place: "For Israel, however, the calculation looks somewhat different." It should have read "For Israelis..." since you clear argue it is not in Israel's interest to have joined the US in attacking Iran. Growing anti-Israelism is accompanied by growing left-wing and right-wing antisemitism, often poorly disguised on the left as ani-Zionism but often directed individually at Jews, or what I write about in one of my beats as "anti-ZionISTism". But thanks for the reminder you can be Pro-Israel and Pro-Peace.
The United States has reliably supported Israel over decades in which Israel has prevailed over her greatest threats: Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran and their proxies. The US cannot, however, sustain unified, reliable support for Israel if that entails overturning the 1948 partition of Palestine by displacing or subjugating Palestinian Arabs in the territories, or by claiming additional territory.
Israel faces a choice between two options for guaranteeing its security:
(1) An "Eretz Israel" approach that relies on complete control over all of Palestine, plus miltiary hegemony over neighboring areas, at the cost of permanent militarization and international isolation; or
(2) The decades-old strategy of looking to the US and the West for security assistance and economic connections, while building a prosperous society and gradually achieving acceptance from Israel's neighbors.
Israel can choose either one of these options, but it can't have both.
As we all know, the families of the captive held in Gaza clearly did not appreciate being used as props by Netanyahu, Ben Gvir & Smotrich. Unmentioned is the latest Israeli assault on Lebanon, the country that was expected to be the 2nd Arab state to normalize relations with Israel. Instead, it remains the region's maquette for manipulation & instability. It also is the source of a great diaspora ours has long engaged with. The Jewish, Palestinian, Lebanese/Syrian & Iranian diasporas are all yelling. Who's listening? Where, too, specifically, are "half the sky" - the women who should be at the table?
I agree that going to war was not in US interests. And can see why Israelis support it. But more importantly, what do we do now? Does it help to oppose a war that’s already begun? Or does it undermine the US & Israel’s ability to win it — hopefully to bring about scenario #2, a better regime for Iranians and the world? I realize that’s really difficult to do. But genuinely asking, given that the war has started, what should the US do now? I’m not sure that just being in opposition is helpful.
Pro Israeli Democracy. How is that. It incorporates Israel’s right exist and its espoused values of equal rights and human rights. At least for me, I cannot support the violence in the West Bank, demolishing of Gaza and a theocracy of right wing Zealots.
J-Street Members are likely to find fascinating a truly excellent episode of "Throughline" on Iran and the Jewish people: An alliance before war | Throughline
Personally, I am fairly well read about contemporary foreign affairs and Jewish history. I learned a lot and will be rewatching it again, this time with my wife.
Israel and Iran have been in almost constant conflict for nearly 50 years. Media tends to frame the violence as endemic, and inevitable — but it’s not.
Between the creation of Israel in 1948 and Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the countries cooperated, if cautiously. And the bridge between them was one of the largest and oldest Jewish populations in the Middle East: a thriving community of Iranian Jews.
Today on the show, the story of Iran and Israel, told through the life of Jewish Iranian Habib Elghanian.
Guests:
Roya Hakakian, author of Journey from the Land of No: A Girlhood Caught in Revolutionary Iran
Shahrzad Elghanayan, author of Titan of Tehran: From Jewish Ghetto to Corporate Colossus to Firing Squad - My Grandfather's Life
Meir Javedanfar, Israeli-Iranian political scientist and teacher at Reichman University
To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline.
To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:
See pcm.adswizz.com (https://pcm.adswizz.com) for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.
Ilan
Good and useful analysis. One note: your first possible outcome is that the Iranian regime survives in a weakened state. You do not mention that besides being weakened, it will also likely be more aggressive and more likely to actually race for a nuclear arsenal.
My take is exactly opposite. The first possible outcome is to essentially destroy their ability to wage war by destroying their military capability AND production capacity. That’s what will happen in the next two weeks. Then we leave and if the regime stays it’s not ideal but not the end of the world. Israel and other neighbors can police their military progress.
What has not been made public but is not discussed here (which tells me you don’t have all the facts) is that Iran’s missile production capacity had just started to exceed the capacity of neighbors to produce anti-missile units. That is almost as dangerous as the nukes. Should the US be doing this? It’s debatable, but not for the reasons stated here.
And btw the reason we don’t attack North Korea is because we screwed up and let them develop nuclear weapons before doing this. This analysis a bit of a cause/effect mess in my opinion.
This is an excellent example of avoiding the heart of the issue, is the IRGC a force that can be contained, or is it fundamentally committed to Islamic revolution above all else. Israelis believe they are, J-street apparently does not.
https://brentdg.substack.com/p/messianic-or-normal?r=3ca5b&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=linkedin.com
The author asks that we denounce the black pot of the Iran war while honoring the black kettle of Israel.
Israel's right to exist is solely from might making right. To pretend that one can support liberty and justice for all as all Americans pledge to do in our Pledge of Allegiance and at the same time support ethnic cleansing for anyone anywhere including Jews in Israel is hypocrisy. Now the ultimate is occurring, American blood is being shed for Israel, at last opening American eyes to the manipulation that has reached a climax in this horror.
It is time to escape the grip Zionism has established on the US by means of vast wealth and influence applied to the corrupt American lobby-run political system and end all support for Israel along with the war with Iran it has brought. Not only because the US is the hypocrite of the world but in particular because the safe place for Jews is well established in America where Jews are outstandingly and justifiably accomplished in all areas.
Success for American Zionists has by their effort had the terrible consequence of turning our country upside down to support its antithesis, ethnic supremacy. One Zionist billionaire, one of a number of them, Larry Ellison, is able to leverage his success as a free and full citizen of the US to buy a major American media outlet, CBS, in order to warp its output to support Israel where he fully approves of the native Palestinians having no rights at all in the OT, being evicted for the crime of living in their homeland, let alone the bloodbath of Gaza. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you? Absolutely not if you support Israel.
Big Zionist donors to US universities are able to leverage their success as free and full citizens of the US to suppress freedom of speech on campuses in this country where freedom of speech is protected by our first amendment. If a university president is not a Zionist, he/she will be intimidated with the threat of being called antisemitic, Jonathan Greenblatt ready and willing to do so anywhere and everywhere in America, throwing the accusation daily, touring synagogues to proclaim: be afraid, be very afraid!
As The Jewish State which claims all of world Jewry as its own has slaughtered and razed in Gaza, Americans are instead to pay attention to the claim that Jewish college students are uncomfortable! This use of the red herring is beyond grotesque. In addition, American Jews are not to be asked their position on Israel, the country that claims them as its own. For decades Americans have heard "Israel has a right to defend itself" while the rights of the Palestinians are not mentioned. Eviction and aggression from 1948 is defense and violence in defense of one's homeland by Palestinians is aggression. Israel has turned morality upside down.
Netanyahu, whose family background is Lithuanian and Polish, is able to get the American president to declare war on Iran that has nothing to do with US national security and everything to do with protecting ethnic cleansing Israel, entirely taken from the native Palestinians who are now being openly and eagerly attacked by Israeli settlers in the West Bank as the Israeli government supplies arms to the settlers, Ben-Gvir presiding with a smile.
Meanwhile, big real estate plans are made for Gaza with no input from the Gazans now homeless and being killed a few at a time from day to day by the IDF after two years of the outright slaughter of tens of thousands to the approval of the great majority of Israelis. Miriam Adelson is standing by waiting for Trump to reward her huge campaign contributions with US recognition of Israel's annexation of the West Bank. Open corruption. Mainstream media is silent.
Israel is a terrible blight on Judaism as was foreseen by the great majority of European Jews before the founding of Israel when Zionism was widely denounced. This denunciation is heard today by the courageous members of JVP who are outraged to see Judaism associated with Zionism and to see Jews, such as Jonathan Greenblatt, making no distinction between Zionism and Judaism.
All Americans, Jew and gentile, must break the "special relationship" with Israel that is as shameful in American history as was slavery.
Pro the concept of Israel, not the current reality of Netanyahu’s and the Likud’s Israel, or Huckabee’s
A good analysis on the possible outcomes of the war, and on the different interests of the US and Israel. And, of course, the continuously growing antisemitism in the US, as the war continues contrary to the interests of America and probably American Jews.
There was little antisemitism in my boomer lifetime, and those of my friends (I've been doing an informal poll). But now the actions of the Israeli government are harming the Jews here, while not helping the Israelis, who come when called, and show up as needed, and support the war. They haven't got any more notion of getting rid of Netanyahu than we do of Trump. It's as if Israel needs rescuing from itself, not Iran, and instead gets enabled by the Emperor himself.
Well written and reasoned, Ilan. I cannot think of one policy that is less in the national interest of the United States of America than this one.
It is a wag the dog gambit on steroids and unmitigated disaster in every conceivable way. Trump is a desperate man who knows that politically and maybe legally he’a a dead man walking.
So, from Trump’s perspective, being that he is an evil and amoral man why not do anything and everything possible to deflect attention from his regime’s Epstein pedophile coverup, crappy economy his policies have caused; and his sadistic, unpopular immigration policies in order to remain in power for as long as possible.
He may figure that if he’s gonna down why not take the entire nation and world down with him.
Serious question: if this war is bad and shouldn’t be happening and is a threat to global stability, then what is your alternative to dealing with Iran and their proxies?
What is missing here is an appreciation for the fact that the United States President entered this war for no clear reason (see a new one every day) and no thought to intended and unintended consequences. Period. Analysis of the putative strategy of a wholly incompetent President and Secretary of Defense when in fact they have nothing that can be seriously characterized as a strategy seems a waste of time. It also bodes poorly for Israel.
Very well put Ilan, thank you very much. Sadly within the growing anti-war on Iran movement there is much conflation of Israel and Israelis. You even do that in one place: "For Israel, however, the calculation looks somewhat different." It should have read "For Israelis..." since you clear argue it is not in Israel's interest to have joined the US in attacking Iran. Growing anti-Israelism is accompanied by growing left-wing and right-wing antisemitism, often poorly disguised on the left as ani-Zionism but often directed individually at Jews, or what I write about in one of my beats as "anti-ZionISTism". But thanks for the reminder you can be Pro-Israel and Pro-Peace.
YES!!! YOU express my sentiments perfectly!!!
The United States has reliably supported Israel over decades in which Israel has prevailed over her greatest threats: Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran and their proxies. The US cannot, however, sustain unified, reliable support for Israel if that entails overturning the 1948 partition of Palestine by displacing or subjugating Palestinian Arabs in the territories, or by claiming additional territory.
Israel faces a choice between two options for guaranteeing its security:
(1) An "Eretz Israel" approach that relies on complete control over all of Palestine, plus miltiary hegemony over neighboring areas, at the cost of permanent militarization and international isolation; or
(2) The decades-old strategy of looking to the US and the West for security assistance and economic connections, while building a prosperous society and gradually achieving acceptance from Israel's neighbors.
Israel can choose either one of these options, but it can't have both.
Exactly right
New Yorkers protested in huge numbers against turning our pain into an excuse to go to war in Iraq. This begin in late 2001: https://www.susanmeiselas.com/911-antiwar-protests
As we all know, the families of the captive held in Gaza clearly did not appreciate being used as props by Netanyahu, Ben Gvir & Smotrich. Unmentioned is the latest Israeli assault on Lebanon, the country that was expected to be the 2nd Arab state to normalize relations with Israel. Instead, it remains the region's maquette for manipulation & instability. It also is the source of a great diaspora ours has long engaged with. The Jewish, Palestinian, Lebanese/Syrian & Iranian diasporas are all yelling. Who's listening? Where, too, specifically, are "half the sky" - the women who should be at the table?
I agree that going to war was not in US interests. And can see why Israelis support it. But more importantly, what do we do now? Does it help to oppose a war that’s already begun? Or does it undermine the US & Israel’s ability to win it — hopefully to bring about scenario #2, a better regime for Iranians and the world? I realize that’s really difficult to do. But genuinely asking, given that the war has started, what should the US do now? I’m not sure that just being in opposition is helpful.
What does Pro Israel even mean?
That Israel has a right to exist.
I think we need more nuanced language than 2 word slogans for a situation this complicated.
Okay. Why don’t you provide us with a better definition then?
Pro Israeli Democracy. How is that. It incorporates Israel’s right exist and its espoused values of equal rights and human rights. At least for me, I cannot support the violence in the West Bank, demolishing of Gaza and a theocracy of right wing Zealots.
J-Street Members are likely to find fascinating a truly excellent episode of "Throughline" on Iran and the Jewish people: An alliance before war | Throughline
Personally, I am fairly well read about contemporary foreign affairs and Jewish history. I learned a lot and will be rewatching it again, this time with my wife.
ESB
==============================================================
Israel and Iran have been in almost constant conflict for nearly 50 years. Media tends to frame the violence as endemic, and inevitable — but it’s not.
Between the creation of Israel in 1948 and Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the countries cooperated, if cautiously. And the bridge between them was one of the largest and oldest Jewish populations in the Middle East: a thriving community of Iranian Jews.
Today on the show, the story of Iran and Israel, told through the life of Jewish Iranian Habib Elghanian.
Guests:
Roya Hakakian, author of Journey from the Land of No: A Girlhood Caught in Revolutionary Iran
Shahrzad Elghanayan, author of Titan of Tehran: From Jewish Ghetto to Corporate Colossus to Firing Squad - My Grandfather's Life
Meir Javedanfar, Israeli-Iranian political scientist and teacher at Reichman University
To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline.
To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:
See pcm.adswizz.com (https://pcm.adswizz.com) for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.
Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices (https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices)
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