I just hopped off an interview with Ariane Tabatabai – who worked on the Iran team at the Pentagon and was part of the negotiations on getting back into the JCPOA at the State Department – about the war, the status of negotiations, and the big picture consequences taking shape in the region and at home.
We talked about:
Where the war actually stands right now – and why for Iran, “winning” may simply mean surviving and creating enough chaos to put other countries in a constant dilemma.
The status of US-Iran diplomacy and the bigger question: Is there a strategy here, or is the Trump Administration so focused on strikes and assassinations that it’s losing sight of the political and domestic costs of this war?
Why Trump’s talk of regime change is almost certainly wrong, and why this may just be a game of musical chairs where hardliners replace hardliners.
And finally, how this war could end – maybe quickly, but not necessarily well, potentially strengthening the regime’s desire for a nuclear weapon, while tightening internal repression at home.
This is one of those moments where lots of different storylines – the war, diplomacy, domestic politics, and US decision-making – are all colliding. Ari helped connect those dots in a way that I think will give you a much clearer sense of where this might be headed.
